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27 july 2012

Weakness in banking took its toll on the markets today with both benchmark indices closing with significant losses. All sectoral indices closed in the red and along with banking, realty, capital goods, IT and metal, too, closed with substantial declines. The Sensex closed at 16640, down 206 points from its previous close, and the Nifty shut shop at 5043, down 67 points. The CNX Midcap index was down 2% while the BSE Smallcap index lost 2.1% in today's trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 331 against declines of 1133 on the NSE. The top Nifty gainers were Ambuja CementsNTPCBajaj Auto andGrasim while the biggest losers included PNBDLF,Tata Power and Tata Motors

For tomorrow 27 July, Nifty future will open with Positive nods. Major resistance for nifty future is 5100-5157 and having good support at 5022-5010. Now Market try to settle huge premium which is currently 40 points.
Our suggestion to sideway from market due to huge volume came today and high premium build up in August Contract series.

Outlook is negative for short term and suggested to go short on higher level with proper stop loss
Share in bullish mode: - ADVANTA                                                                                          
Share in bearish mode: - MCX, VAIBHAVGEM, WELCORP

Nifty technical view 26 dec to 30 december 
Nifty had a range bound session on Friday and the turnover data too was not very encouraging. It is a Christmas holiday week for the FII's and thus we can't expect an action packed week for Nifty. In the coming week too turnover would be low and Nifty could most probably see a range bound session. If we observe the price action it is evident that Nifty held our major turning point of 4640 and that could be a decent stop loss cushion for all long positions. On the upside Nifty held one of our major resistance point of 4770 on Friday. Another resistance point where lot of short positions got initiated would be around 4840 levels and these are levels that could act as upside cap.If you are an experienced trader start selling options by keeping a delta neutral position as a possibility of range bound market would be more.Thus by making your position a delta neutral one a trader could get the extra premium in his favor.Volatility data was in favor of bears as short positions are getting initiated on tops with a decrease in cost of carry.As per time cycle we have a major date coming around 5th of January for a major turn around. As of now we can keep 4640-4840 as the range for the week.
19 dec to 23 dec nifty tips FREE

Finally Nifty retested 4640 and broke below that!!It is expected to slide lower as investors have started squaring off long positions.As said in the previous post Dollar Index crossed an important level of 80 on the upside and it would be a hindrance for any up move in Nifty. If we have a look at the volatility data we can see short positions got accumulated only at the top and lot of long positions got out of the market especially long term investors. It was a crash in every respect as along with Nifty , bank nifty and many biggies registered new 52 week lows. As i mentioned in the previous post Nifty got locked in 4830-60 zone as lot of short positions are still active at that level and it topped out exactly in the same range.It is a good time to do some shopping in the equity segment as the valuations are really attractive.Though we were sitting on cash till now time has come to start investing with a time horizon of 2-3 years.For a trader Nifty could still give lower lows and eventually it could form a low any where between 4500-4300.Thus it could be altogether a different approach in trading and investing at this point of time.
As per time cycle there is every chance of a good pull back rally on or before 24th December or 21st of December. Technically charts are telling that it is a crash and we could not find a bottom soon ,but market can do anything and that too to any extreme.Thus i'm not saying that Nifty would show some strength in the near future but one should be careful when every body is bearish in the market as markets usually rally at these times.Look for volatility peaking out and Nifty trading at huge discount as these are some of signs of bottoming out.As a trading level lets keep 4500-4530 as a fair level of the current trend with a reversal above 4860. As of now weekly range would be 4530-4770.I'm uploading the same Nifty chart from 2001-2011 where i was talking about 4500 level.

12 Dec to 16 dec :- 

Nifty closed last week at 4867 after making a high of 5100. It was clearly suggested last week to sell here (at 5050) and between 5100-5200 with stoploss of 5235 and target was 4950 & 4875, Nifty achieved both targets respectively. Conservative longs were also suggested to book profit there & buy again in fall of 150-200 points, it also achieved the same. Aggressive longs were also suggested between 4925-4875 with stoploss of 4825 & luckily we got straight 4850 in morning so our naked long executed at very attractive prices. Last week has gone & now we must look forward that how we can follow this market in coming days.

Monthly chart suggesting a positive divergence in stochastic after a long time. I always believe its a precursor so others oscillator may follow it later or it may return back to others in coming days. I am highly bullish but only above 5235, till then its a rangebound market between 4800-5200 with mild bullish bias. Below 4800 my bullish case will diminish but not wipe off. Below 4800 there are strong supports between 4750-4700 and then at 4650-4600 but below 4800 my bias will be neutral not negative. Why i am not negative even after breaking 4640 bcoz my system suggesting very good risk reward ratio in favour of long & medium term buyers, only a close below 4400-4350 will compell me to think again on my strategy.

Technical analysis suggest good probability not any surety anyhow, in case of any failure stoploss will save you properly. In my opinion market is in process of bottoming out on long term chart, so till 5235 i am cautious bull but above 5235 i will be fearless bull. All this i am mentioning for medium & long term, in short term i would love to go with below mentioned levels. 1st immediate short term resistance coming at 4950 and strong one at 5050, if it sustain above 5050 then it will favour bulls & Nifty will move towards 5100-5200 and above 5235 now you all know my UNBELIEVABLE target 5700-6000.
TARGET 4950-4900
1ST TARGET 5050, 2ND TARGET 5200 & ABOVE 5235=======>> 5700-6000
Ps.: Long term investors must invest in this fall for long & medium term in good sector like Oil & Gas, Power, Infrastructre & Banking.. 
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